Tuesday, March 25, 2008

GENERAL PETRAEUS'S COMMENTS ON IRAQ AND THE SIN OF OMISSION

POSTED RESPONSE TO A COLUMN IN THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Petraeus is right here as far as he goes, but he avoids telling the whole story, thus effectively bending the truth by omission.

The new tactic works as follows.

Sunnis (the main insurgents) are paid money - around $300/month each - not to oppose American forces. In turn, Americans do more projects rapidly in their area, such as installing new street lights. The Sunnis perceive themselves getting ahead of their rival Shia.

Superficially this sounds good (although very expensive), but it will only work in the short term.

It is a tactic, not a strategy.

Longer term, what this is doing is building up even greater divisions and resentments between groups.

It is no solution at all. It is almost certain that Iraq will break into three pieces. The Kurdish area in the North is already semi-independent.

The consequences long-term of breaking into three pieces are immense, too complicated to discuss here.

Still, this bribery in return for a temporary lull looks good for now and may provide the excuse for U.S. forces getting out.