Friday, May 30, 2008

GLOBAL WARMING

POSTED RESPONSE TO A COLUMN BY CLIVE CROOKS IN THE FINANCIAL TIMES

I do believe enough good scientists have confirmed a warming trend, but the question for society is whether it is induced by human behavior.

This certainly doesn’t mean warming everywhere. It indeed means greater variability in many places.

We certainly know that climate has changed many times just in the Common Era.

Tacitus called North Africa the granary of Rome. Today it is a desert.

The Norsemen who established settlement in Newfoundland long before Columbus was born were likely extinguished by climate change.

Mini ice ages had rivers in Northern Europe frozen over about three centuries ago.
Britains grew grapes once, then didn’t, and are now starting to do so again.

Society will have to adapt to the changes underway. I doubt very much we can avoid them by changes in behavior.

There will be massive migrations coming as the basic climate of some places makes them uneconomic. There will be flooding of coastal places. Parts of the world that today are semi-deserts, like the American Southwest, will likely become true deserts.

I think measures that advance our technology and the flexibility of our economies are well worthwhile, but not because they will alter our climatic fate. Change is always a spur to human ingenuity.