Sunday, June 01, 2008

CHINA AND DEMOCRACY AND COMMUNIST PARTY BUYING OFF MIDDLE CLASS

POSTED RESPONSE TO A COLUMN BY JOHN LEE IN THE GUARDIAN

But, John Lee, this is always what is done as nations progress to modernity.

Eventually, the middle class will be large enough and well-off enough, to assume control of politics and the state. When that happens, it's called democracy.

The early United States was ruled by a small group of elites. About 1% of Virginia's population could vote.

You could not vote without property. The Senate was appointed. The president was elected only by the Electoral College, selected from the same property-holding elites. The Bill of Rights sounded good but was never enforced owing to disagreements over state versus federal authority.

If you do the math, you'll see that 1% is roughly the same representativeness as modern China (about 60 million party members out of 1.3 billion).

It took many years of progress – slow, step by step, plus a huge war - to turn the United States into the democratic state that it is, although many would say the process is far from over.

In the modern case of Revolution in Iran, both the emerging middle class and religious conservatives were against the Shah. The Shah had played up to the growing middle class in many ways, including letting their children study abroad.

But at some point, an absolute monarch becomes ridiculous for thousands of professionals and businessmen with vital interests in the decisions made.

The Iranian middle class made a coalition with the religious forces who hated the Shah because he was secular and had little patience for religious traditions.

The Revolution succeeded, but then the religious forces squeezed the middle class out, much as the Bolsheviks had pushed aside the others who had overthrown the Czar.

It is only a matter of time before the middle class comes back and Iran becomes a democracy. If you look at scenes in Tehran, you already see a young middle class impatient with old ways.

Democracy is everywhere and always the ultimate product of sustained, strong economic growth. It will be in China too.