Tuesday, September 18, 2018

JOHN CHUCKMAN COMMENT: SHOOT-DOWN OF RUSSIAN PLANE IN SYRIA - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER AND PUTIN SAY DIFFERENT THINGS - WHY THEY ARE BOTH RIGHT - ISRAEL'S UTTER LAWLESSNESS YET AGAIN

John Chuckman

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XPANSION OF COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE IN THE INDEPENDENT



“Syria accidentally shot down Russian military plane, Kremlin admits”



In Putin’s remarks, after earlier, rather harsher remarks by the Russian Defense Minister, this is the direction taken, but there is still no question Israel is responsible here.

It used an old tactic of letting its fighters seek cover behind the Russian plane, making it possible for Syria’s older, less-sophisticated missiles to strike the Russian plane.

Israel was also negligent in giving Russia almost no advanced warning, 60 seconds apparently, of its intended attack on Syria, and that is not in keeping with existing understandings. The Russian plane which was about to land, had virtually no advanced warning and couldn’t take evasive action.

So, the earlier statements by the Russian military are accurate.

But Putin is a very cautious man, and his public statement about a series of accidents creating the incident buys time to consider future steps.

Of course, Israeli planes have no business whatever in Syria or firing missiles at Syria, but we all know the kind of law-abiding state Israel is.

I do think, perhaps quietly, Putin will act to limit Israel's abused freedom of behavior.

Options range from a more widely dispersed the Russian forces’ air defence with their top-of-the-line S-400 missiles to further upgrading Syria's own air defence, something they have done a fair bit on but not gone anywhere as far as they could.

Of course, that last is precisely why Israel might use the cowardly trick of dodging behind another plane. The Syrians have done pretty well with their old, Soviet-era (but upgraded) S-200s and an earlier version of the Pantsir system.

But the Russians could go much further than they have, if Putin thinks that is to his advantage.

Putin in his remarks said he would ensure that security for Russian servicemen was increased. What exactly does that mean?

Russia, of course, could also start supplying certain things to Hezbollah which would be extremely disturbing for Israel. Lawless behavior like Israel’s does have consequences.

I rather doubt there will be any repeat of this kind of Israeli stunt.