Thursday, June 19, 2008

TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF MCCAIN'S OFFSHORE-DRILLING PROPOSAL

RESPONSE TO A COLUMN BY HANNAH STRANGE IN THE TIMES

You are exactly right on this, Hannah, it is hard to understand just what McCain hopes to achieve here.

First, today, environmentalism is anything but a left-wing philosophy. There are definitely people in his own party he will alienate.

The oil industry has never enjoyed great public sympathy either, and today as we enter a new era in the cost of petroleum products, I would expect that sympathy is going nowhere but down.

I think too this should be sufficient for any fence-sitters left from Hillary's campaign. Environmental recklessness is hardly a viable alternative to Obama.

As far as your calculation of filling the oil gap, it is even worse than it suggests. Depending on the nature of an oil-bearing structure, oil can only be produced at certain rates, rates far, far slower than the calculation suggests.

I do think this proposal shows us something about McCain's character. He is taking a big crap-shoot, rather than a thoughtful analysis, and this is in keeping with what we know of many of his past behaviors.

This was how George Bush went into Iraq, and the results have been disastrous (including, along with his constant threats against Iran, a significant impact on oil markets).

You may be familiar with Ian Kershaw's analysis of Hitler's personality in his large two-volume biography. Kershaw came down to the view that Hitler was a bet-the-farm gambler who had a winning streak for a while.

Bush's personality is very much like that, and so is John McCain's. It is a dangerous personality type to lead a nation which spends more on its military than the rest of the planet combined.

McCain shares another personality trait, a truly frightening temper.

Of course, McCain does not actually have the nomination yet. As you may know, there are rumors on the Internet that he will not be made the candidate at the Republican Convention.

I do not regard these as totally implausible because there has always been a faction in the Republicans which feels about McCain the way most Republicans feel about Hillary Clinton - that is, visceral hatred.

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Eric,

Your comments are incredibly uninformed, but what would one expect from someone who uses a childish epithet like "Obamatards"?

As a retired chief economist for a large oil company, I can assure you that Obama's characterization of the prospects for offshore drilling is accurate.

There is a lot of money to be made with $140/barrel oil even with a small field, so of course companies want to do it, but there is no chance that offshore drilling in America is going to turn around the developing situation. None.

And things are only likely to become worse. Apart from Bush's ignorant shooting up of some of the world's great centers of production, the rise of China and India and their competition for resources mean the United States is entering a new era altogether.

Lumbering SUVs and grotesque, over-sized pick-up trucks - two and three to a family - each with one passenger are a thing of the past, unless you are rich enough to burn money.

So is the seemingly endless suburban sprawl that has made America an ever-uglier place since WWII. Endless new cheap tracts in the cornfields and deserts are going the way of the Dodo. The costs of transportation and heating and public services are going to end this phenomenon.

So you might stop being senselessly angry and calling names and start thinking about the future new realities.