John Chuckman
COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE IN CBC NEWS
“Electric vehicles are approaching a tipping point — here's why
“EVs are starting to overcome the 4 top reasons many Canadians say they're wary of going electric”
Tipping point?
I don't want to rain on the parade, but really.
Electric cars are still a poor option for most purposes.
They are costly for what they offer. They are still not in the least practical for most of what we use transportation for. Remember, we had electric cars back before 1910, but there are real reasons they never took hold. A tank of gasoline is an immense reservoir of energy compared to any battery we have even now.
Battery technology may come, but it is not yet here.
Sales of electric cars have increased for very limited reasons.
There are niche opportunities such as urban delivery systems. Their charging and other problems can be handled as an integral part of the system. But, even in this use, they still present cost and possibly convenience problems.
Importantly, there are people's hopes despite realities. We have an awful lot of that these days. After centuries of traditional religion, we have new secular religions, especially amongst millennials.
Most importantly, there are all kinds of subsidies in place at various levels. Just immense. Tesla company is literally built on them. I don’t think it could exist otherwise.
It is a basic truth that when anything only flourishes on substantial subsidies, we are dealing more in hopes and dreams than reality. Transportation is a very practical service need, and losing sight of that fact can create a lot of confusion.
Even the green hopes and quasi-religious faith may be misguided. First, the electricity you use is only as “clean” as the source of generation. And things like windmills cannot provide base-load (that is the ability to flick a switch, 24-hours a day) power. Despite their own high cost and still-being-discovered, long-term maintenance issues, they require back-up generation, as the kind of gas plant Ontario’s McGuinty buried for a billion dollars worth of NIMBYISM. All the more expensive.
Second, research has shown unanticipated pollutant side-effects, such as much higher road and tire wear, sending large amounts of fine particulate matter into the air owing to the sheer weight of batteries. Increased wear means still more increased cost, too, although that’s not immediately clear to people
And then there's battery disposal. No small thing. If you look at the cost and efficiencies of any technology, you must look at full-cycle costs. That includes the processes to make the components right through to disposal.
If you fail to take account in any comparison, you only playing a shell game.
And, of course, the same goes for electricity generation itself.
Still, in many places or situations, electricity is effectively subsidized. Certainly, windmills are subsidized everywhere.
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Response to another comment:
American Indianapolis-type racing cars have long been alcohol (methanol) powered.
I think it is related to track safety.
But alcohol still only has about 60% of the energy of gasoline. That's a huge difference. And it costs more.
Costs in all these matters are not just the concern of the Uncle Scrooge types. High costs in any activity block out society’s opportunity to do other worthwhile things. That is a very real effect.
Convenience, too, may be looked at as a cost. Imagine a trip to California in an electric vehicle, having to stop maybe every 150 or 200 miles to recharge, assuming the recharging facilities were even there. Apart from frequent stops, you would have to carefully plan out your route so you didn’t wind up on the desert somewhere with a discharged car.
When I saw a picture some while ago of a fairly large electric truck, all I could think of was, “Well, I wouldn’t want my fruits and vegetables delivered that way.” Of course, it likely comes with extra batteries wired together in the trailer, but that increases weight and cost.
