Thursday, February 04, 2016

JOHN CHUCKMAN COMMENT: EARLY THOUGHTS ON THE IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS


COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE IN THE GUARDIAN


Whoa, there, boys. Don't get so excited.

The Iowa Caucus, historically, is an extremely unimportant event in American presidential politics, only getting attention because it comes first.

First, it's not a true simple ballot like New Hampshire or other primaries. It is a time consuming operation which deters many and this gives it a built-in bias.

Second, most of the winners in Iowa's caucus history went on to win nothing, often not even their own party nomination.

Third, there could well have been skulduggery by Hillary's camp. Microsoft, a Hillary-friendly corporation, was involved in getting the tally.

Microsoft also, as many know from the on-going Windows 10 Assault upon their personal computers, is not the world's most scrupulous company in any event.

Sanders is requesting the actual votes. After all, polls immediately before the caucus showed him in the lead.

On the Republican side, first, Cruz very possibly is Constitutionally excluded. His case is different in details from Obama's.

It will require a Supreme Court challenge at some point to decide whether a parent outside the U.S. registering a child with the State Department under a law of not many years ago, created for the benefit of corporate and military personnel abroad, is equivalent the Constitution's demand for "natural born."

That can't be decided outside the highest court.

Two, Cruz's people definitely used an underhanded tactic in Iowa. They were reprimanded by a state official just yesterday for sending out postcards with phony claims about official voting records, an effort to influence who voted.

At any rate, now the serious stuff begins.