EXPANSION OF A COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE BY THE SAKER IN CHECKPOINT ASIA
“It’s Time for Russian Carrier Ambitions to Sail Into the Sunset
“If carriers are obsolete that goes double for Russia”
I didn't know there were any "Russian carrier ambitions."
The Kuznetsov [a Soviet era carrier, Russia’s only remaining one] does appear to have been effectively sidelined already.
Since it had been sitting around, Russia was going to upgrade it so long as the job wasn’t too costly.
But it is hard to see the cautious and pragmatic Putin spending on the costly new dry dock now required, owing to the sinking of the old one, to work on a dated ship.
That is not his style. It might well be useful for other ships, but its great size is determined by the old carrier.
Anyway, America and China have very different purposes for their carriers.
America uses them all over the world as tools of intimidation. And they do make impressive sights in distant lands.
And it thinks it must have platforms to work in places like the South China Sea. It of course always has Israel on its mind, too. And Iran is an obsession.
It should be noted that during the last big flare-up Trump generated against Iran, an American aircraft carrier was kept a few hundred miles from Iran’s coast, which is lined with that country’s own anti-ship missile. I don’t think the effectiveness of that missile is known, but Iran has demonstrated the accuracy and effectiveness of a couple of its other missiles.
The latest, most sophisticated anti-ship missiles – those of Russia and China, certainly – do make that American use of carriers a risky business now, although not all weapons systems reach the international arms market.
I do believe there is an element in Pentagon and American Naval thinking a little resembling that of the Polish Army of 1939, not wanting to give up on its splendid-looking cavalry.
America likes to use the term "power projection," although there is something almost 19th century British imperial in the term. Well, what do you know, American indeed has a global empire?
China likely thinks in terms of perhaps eventually having to use force on Taiwan. At any rate, it will be prepared, and Taiwan’s just knowing that encourages caution in its behavior.
China’s artificial island bases in the South China Sea, complete with runways and defensive missiles, actually somewhat resemble a permanently at-sea carrier fleet.
Nobody knows better than China the vulnerabilities of such capital ships today. They do have one of the most destructive missiles for use against them, a missile with which they’ve lined a good part of their coast.
Yet they still see enough useful purpose in carriers to build new ones. I believe they’re planning a total of about half a dozen. The next one, their third, is to have an electromagnetic catapult for the planes rather than the European-style ski ramp.
Since Russia is far, far more reluctant about being in the power-projection business than America, I'm not sure there is a good role for these immensely costly ships. Just their crews are on the order of 3 to 5,000 trained men who must be fed and housed and doctored at sea, and they require escort ships.
Putin wants a good decade or so for Russia to grow economically in peace, and he believes he has assured that with the new hypersonic and other hi-tech weapons. He even cut the military’s budget, something America’s press and politicians seem reluctant to mention while they’re busy hyping the Russian threat.
The role of these ships, whoever uses them, is likely to change with new sophisticated drones. Stealthy drones will be used both against carriers, as spotters for certain kinds of anti-ship missiles, and be used by them. You can haul more drones than fighter planes, and you don’t need quite the same crews.
