TO PARAPHRASE CHURCHILL, TURKEY RIGHT NOW IS A RIDDLE
WRAPPED IN A MYSTERY INSIDE AN ENIGMA
John Chuckman
Events in Turkey just become stranger with each passing day.
We now have Middle Eastern and Persian sources, cited by
Russian and German papers, that Russia’s security agencies overheard helicopter
radio transmissions by the coup participants, and President Putin warned
Erdogan about what was happening, likely saving his skin.
If true, this would help explain the apparent ineptness of
the coup forces. My first hypothesis explaining this ineptness plus other
peculiarities of the coup was that the plotters were unwittingly working in a
dark operation run by Turkish security forces, intended to make them fail while
flushing them out and giving Erdogan a free hand.
This possibility of Russian advance warning put together
with Erdogan’s own belief that the coup originated in America should yield some
serious geopolitical shifts in the region.
We could have an even stronger rapprochement between Turkey
and Russia than was already underway, a rapprochement, by the way, which could
well have helped tip the United States into giving a wink and a nod (and of
course, as always, some cash) to Turkish rebel forces.
But that would not be the only reason for America’s
supporting a coup. The truth is, from the American point of view, Erdogan’s erratic
behavior – shooting down a Russian war plane, firing artillery into Syria at
American Kurdish allies, blackmailing Europe over large numbers of refugees
resident in Turkish camps, and still other matters - over the last few years
has added uncertainty and potential instability to a strategically important
region.
Even if the United States were not involved in the coup,
although right now Turkey’s government appears to believe firmly that it was,
Putin’s warning would add a powerful positive element to Russian-Turkish relations.
Just as America’s failure to warn Erdogan adds a new
negative element to Turkish-American relations. After all, no one is better equipped
for international communication interception than the NSA. If the United States
were not involved, why didn’t it warn Erdogan? Either way, the outcome is
negative for Turkish-American relations.
One of the strongest suggestions for American involvement is
the fact that Turkish jets, for bombing and fuel supplies, took off from the İncirlik
Airbase during the coup. This airbase is Turkish, but has many Americans
resident, including some high-level ones, since there is not only a sizable air
force stationed there but an estimated fifty thermonuclear bombs. The Turkish
commander, Gen. Bekir Ercan Van, was in daily contact with the Americans and
sought asylum in the United States before he was arrested by Turkey.
If it is true that Putin warned Erdogan, this would also be
the second time Putin has blunted the success of a major American-inspired
coup, as he very much did in Ukraine.
Seems as though poor old America, for all its grossly
swollen and over-paid security services, just cannot run a good coup anymore.
Putin is disliked by Washington’s establishment precisely because
he successfully blunted a huge and costly operation in Ukraine, so disliked
that NATO has been pushed dangerously into something resembling the terrifying preparations
for Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa in Eastern Europe, 1941.
And, of course, Putin also has thwarted the American effort
to overthrow President Assad with paid and supplied proxy forces of mercenaries
and religious maniacs. Interestingly, Erdogan has been a key player there.
French intelligence has just estimated that even now about a hundred thugs
cross the border from Turkey into Syria each week.
If Putin has now also stopped a Turkish adventure, the
hissing in Washington will likely become much louder.
A new relationship between Turkey and Russia offers a lot of
possibilities, none of them favorable from America’s point of view, the restart
of the Turkish Stream natural gas project being just one.
And if Europe speaks up or acts too strongly against Erdogan’s
counter-coup measures, there’s always the possibility of a new release of
refugees from Turkish camps, something which could genuinely destabilize the EU
after so many other recent woes. And smooth control of the EU has been one of
America’s chief policy objectives for years.
Of course, we should remember that Churchill’s famous quote
originally applied to Russia in the days of Stalin. It does not apply to
contemporary Russia, and Putin’s deft moves have made some of America’s clumsy
efforts at re-ordering the world rather make it resemble Stalin in
international affairs.
